Prognostication 2016


Quinn Forney

The auditorium was decorated with balloons and, later, confetti in line with this year’s election. Though the map appears primarily red, the states Hillary won, in blue, had high electoral counts.

During election years, Lambert’s AP United States History, or APUSH, students participate in a prediction of the presidential election’s results, or a “prognostication”. This event involves a month-long research project, requiring students to examine their assigned state’s demographics, relevant issues, and previous election results in order to evaluate what this year’s election will produce. Over the past several prognostications, APUSH has predicted the outcome correctly.

The showcase began as school started Monday morning, and took place in the auditorium. Alaska kicked off the beginning of this year’s event and chose Donald Trump as their winner. Throughout the first half of the day, Trump was prevailing, particularly in the midwestern states. By lunchtime, Trump was in the lead with 101 electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton had 58.

After lunch, things started to shift in Clinton’s favor. For a while, the two were neck and neck; the states with high electoral counts caused switches back and forth. However, at the end of the day, Clinton won with 278 electoral votes, while Trump had 260.

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Though a political research showcase, groups made efforts to make it as entertaining as possible. Two groups, Colorado and Illinois, sang their presentations; Iowa hosted a “brawl” between Mr VanTreek and Coach Bass, who were dressed as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton respectively; three “Ben Franklin’s” presented for Pennsylvania.

Although this year’s election had some unique aspects that could skew voters, APUSH students and Mrs. Wilson are still confident that their prediction is correct, though perhaps a state or two off.